God, Syria, and Bashar- A new Syrian dawn
- Yazad Bhacka
- Dec 22, 2024
- 3 min read
Updated: Aug 22
On the 8th of December, every Syrian citizen woke up to a new reality, as their President Bashar Al Assad had fled the country to take asylum in Moscow. Rebel troops part of Hayat Tahrir Al Sham, or the HTS, filled the streets of Damascus only days after capturing Aleppo as they were led by a united front backed by Turkey. Assad had kept everyone in the dark with his exit plan strategy as he left his nation after 24 years in power and scores of atrocities against minorities and children, essentially continuing the Syrian civil war. Many are concerned with the power vacuum left by Assad as several of his soldiers are now moving towards the Iraq border. This situation could spiral out of control as several sister organisations of the Islamic State could form with the help of these soldiers in Iraq, which is an already unstable state. Towards the North, the Syrian National Army (SNA), a group funded by Turkey, is also looking to meet the HTS in the capital and ponder over Syria’s future, while to its east, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which is essentially an offshoot of the Kurdish National Party (PKK) and funded by the United States, stands as a threat. The three main divisions of Syria and small territories controlled by Russia are now what remains. A potential conflict could be brewing between the SDF and SNA as they are ideologically on opposite ends, which could make the situation in West Asia worse and more unstable, possibly leading to the rise of ISIS once more.
The new leader of Syria and the rebel forces, Ahmed Al-Sharaa formerly known as Abu Mohammad Al-Jolani or the Syrian Zelensky, has brought together hope among the Syrian Sunnis to establish a functioning government and has called on the countries of the Global North to drop their sanctions, helping him ease into power. In a recent interview with the BBC, he also said that he wishes his group to appear moderate and will look to design a new constitution for the Syrian people. Al-Jolani’s Wikipedia page, interestingly, looks more like the LinkedIn profile of a terrorist as he has had previous experiences of working with Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the Islamic State, and now the Syrian transitional government. The transitional government also plans to open up borders to the millions of refugees who have been returning in a reverse refugee crisis from Turkey and other European nations.
The fall of Assad’s regime has undoubtedly come as a shock to Russia and Iran, whose Shia crescent has now tumbled into an abyss with a weakened Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in Gaza. The fall of Assad means that an ally which acted as a buffer zone between Israel and Tehran is now gone. The war in Ukraine is being seen as a turning point due to Russia’s inability to commit as many forces to Assad as it could before the war. Assad was also looking to take back power from the Iranians and establish relations with the Sunni states of the Arab League. The speed with which the HTS took over the capital clearly showed how weak Iran’s influence had become over the Syrian regime. The vacuum has also led Israeli forces to enter Syria and occupy the buffer zone in the South as they look to take away the scraps from this regime change. With a new American President who prefers isolationism swearing in less than a month, American soldiers will likely be shipped back to their homeland, potentially leading to the rise of several terrorist organisations due to the instability. Although there is a renewed hope among the Syrian people with the HTS in power, we do not know if the HTS will walk the walk or set up a fundamentalist regime with Sharia law put in place.
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