Peace or Power? What are these Negotiations For?

Image by Sunguk Kim on Unsplash

Politically charged events are never divorced from one another. There is always some underlying connection or influence between two seemingly isolated events, and it is more common than what one might think. One such quality that commonly anchors these events and influences their union is diplomacy, particularly diplomacy at a geopolitical level.

This type of diplomacy has always been important in maintaining international relations in a really vulnerable period when the world continues to bear witness to multiple human atrocities simultaneously. These diplomatic relations come with the power to influence significant political events like elections, larger impact-bearing aftermaths of wars and natural calamities. A huge part of insulating your diplomatic stand is through knowing the art of negotiation, which we will see further in the article, has been extremely crucial in the development of the Russo-Ukrainian War.

About two years ago, Russia caused waves across news headlines globally by invading Ukraine in a major escalation of the Russo-Ukrainian War, which is said to have begun in 2014. The war is said to have united a lot of the countries and welfare committees across the globe in favor of Ukraine. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and Australia along with the Western Bloc (the U.S, EU, and NATO members) provided aid to the country with the latter also attempting to weaken Russia’s hold by issuing sanctions and providing military aid to Ukraine as well. The Biden government in particular, provided them with HIMARS through their Department of Defense (DOD). 

However, the tides seem to have somewhat turned as Donald J. Trump is said to be the projected winner of the U.S. Presidential Elections of 2024. His return to the office seems to have stirred a significant concern for NATO, prompting them to take over Ukraine aid coordination according to FirstPost. Moreover, the fact that Trump had almost threatened to quit NATO during his first term as President and the outgoing administration in Washington has been seen scrambling to ship as many weapons as possible to Kyiv is very telling of the unease that has begun rippling due to Trump’s ambiguous stance on the situation. The most pressing worry is the withdrawal of the United States’ support to NATO. While the Biden administration seemed to have been a strong proponent of Ukraine’s right to self defense, Trump’s inconsistent stance seems to have amped up the tensions. The speculation that there’s something deeper that underscores these developments can also be attributed to the mutual praises Putin and Trump have sung for each other at various occasions.  

Moreover, the official Residence of the Russian President, Kremlin's statement about being open to negotiations comes at a very convenient time of the recent U.S. Presidential Elections. Trump’s call for an immediate ceasefire and talks of peace also further hints at some influence on these negotiations. However, Zelensky has since asked for more concrete guarantees, and states that “peace is not just a piece of paper,” according to Reuters. It is important to highlight, however, that the Kremlin has been very openly interfering with the U.S. Presidential Elections and has had plenty of  involvement or influence in swaying certain votes. According to NY Times, the Kremlin has had a lot of involvement with fabricating information during the elections, seemingly in favor of Trump. These claims are substantiated by a joint statement by ODNI, FBI, and CISA where they did speculate Russia’s involvement in tensions during the election season caused due to misinformation, and a report by Al Jazeera also claims that Russia had “upped its information campaigns to manipulate US public opinion.”  

Lastly, because of Ukraine being dependent on the U.S., and there being intensified attacks by Russia ahead of Trump’s inauguration, one must really stop and question whether these calls and claims really come from a motive of achieving peace or being a launchpad for more power and strategic alliances.